2023考研英语阅读印度身陷困境
India in trouble
印度身陷困境
The reckoning
最后审判日
Why India is particularly vulnerable to theturbulence rattling emerging markets
为什么印度新兴市场特别容易受到震荡
ON THE morning of August 17th most of India s economic policymakers gathered in theprime minister s house in Delhi.
8月17日上午，大多数印度经济政策制定者聚集在德里的总理府邸。
They were there to launch an official economic history of 1981-97, a period which included thebalance-of-payments crisis of 1991.
他们聚集那里为了发布一项官方的1981年到1997年间的经济史，这个时期包括1991年的国际收支危机。
The mood was tense.
氛围十分紧张。
India, said Manmohan Singh, theprime minister, faced very difficult circumstances.
总理曼莫汉辛格说，印度面临十分困难的状况。
Does history repeat itself? asked Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing head of the Reserve Bankof India.
历史重演了吗?即将退休的印度央行行长苏巴拉奥问道，
As if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?
好像我们没有从一次经济危机到另一次经济危机中什么都没有学到?
The day before Indian financial markets had had their rockiest session for many years.
之前，印度金融市场最困难的时期持续了很多年了。
The rupee sank and stockmarkets tumbled.
卢比贬值，股市坍塌。
Money-market rates rose.
货币市场汇率上升。
The shares of banks thought to be either full of bad debts or short of deposit funding fellsharply.
人们认为满是坏账或者缺少存款资金的银行股份迅速贬值。
The sell-off had been made worse by new capital controls introduced on August 14th inresponse to incipient signs of capital flight.
为应对早期资金外流现象，8月14日实施的资本控制使得证券抛售变得更糟糕。
They reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the country.
他们减少了印度居民和公司可以带出国家的资金量。
Foreign investors took fright, fearful that India might freeze their funds too, much asMalaysia did during its crisis in 1998.
外国投资者受到了惊吓，担心印度也会冻结他们的资金，就像马来西亚1998年经济危机的时候采取的措施一样。
India s authorities have since ruled that out.
印度当局后来排除了那种可能。
But markets keep sliding.
但是市场持续下滑。
On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields.
8月20日，印度央行称会试着稳定债券收益率。
The rupee has dropped to over 64 to the dollar, an all-time low and 13% below its level threemonths ago.
卢比已贬值至一美元64卢比，价值空前的低，比三个月前水平低13%。
It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.
人们普遍认为，这个国家处在自从1991年以来最糟糕的经济窘境中。
India is not being singled out.
印度不是被单挑出来的。
Since May, when the Federal Reserve first said it might slow the pace of its assetpurchases,investors have begun adjusting to a world without ultra-cheap money.
从五月份以来，当美联储首次表明会放慢其资产收购的进程时，投资者已经开始适应没有超低息政策的世界。
There has been a great withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, where mostcurrencies have fallen by 5-15% against the dollar in the past three months.
大量资金从新兴市场撤出，这些市场过去的三个月卢比对美元汇率下降了5-15%。
Bond yields have risen from Brazil to Thailand.
债券收益从巴西上升到了泰国水平。
Some governments have intervened.
一些政府介入了。
On July 11th Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to bolster its currency.
7月11日，印度尼西亚提升了其基准利率来加强货币。
On August 21st its president said he would soon announce further measures to ensurestability.
8月21日，印尼总统表明不久就会宣布进一步的措施来确保经济稳定。
India, Asia s third-biggest economy, is more vulnerable than most, however.
印度，亚洲第三大经济，却比大多数国家更脆弱。
Economic news has disappointed for two years, with growth falling to 4-5%, half the rateseen during the 2003-08 boom.
经济资讯让人们失望了两年了，经济增长率降到4-5%，其中一半的经济增长率还是在2003-08年经济蓬勃时期发展起来的。
It may fall further.
经济增长率还会进一步下跌。
Consumer-price inflation remains stubborn at 10%.
消费物价上涨仍保持在10%。
A drive by Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, to push through a package ofreforms and free big industrial projects from red tape has not worked.
由财务部长帕拉尼亚潘奇丹巴南为从繁文缛节中通过一系列改革和免费的大型工业项目而发起的运动还没有效果。
An election is due by May 2023, adding to uncertainty.
选举在2023年5月，也增加了不确定性。
India s dependence on foreign capital is also high and has risen sharply.
印度对外资的依赖程度也很高并且上升很迅速。
The current-account deficit soared to almost 7% of GDP at the end of 2023, although it isexpected to be 4-5% this year.
往来账户逆差2023年底急升至将近GDP的7%，虽然今年预期逆差是4-5%。
External borrowing has not risen by much relative to GDPthe ratio stands at 21%todaybut debt has become more short-term, and therefore riskier.
外债相对于GDP没有上升很多现在比例在21%但是债务更多是短期的，因此更危险。
Total financing needs are $250 billion over the next year.
财政需求总额下一年是2.5亿美元。
India s reserves are $279 billion, giving a coverage ratio of 1.1 times.
印度的储备是2.79亿，是偿还能力系数的1.1倍。
That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08 and leaves India looking weakerthan many of its peers.
2007-08这个储备下降了3倍多，也使印度看起来比许多同样的国家看起来更弱。
It is therefore vital that foreign equity investors stay put.
因此，外资股权投资者留在原处很重要。
They own perhaps $200 billion of shares at current prices.
按现时价格计算，他们可能拥有2亿美元的股份。
They have sold only about $3 billion since May, but if they head for the exit India would haveno defence.
自从五月份以来，他们只卖了大约3百万股份，但是如果他们撤出，印度将失去所有的防御。
This is not a repeat of 1991.
这不是1991年的一种重复。
When India last had a crisis Boris Yeltsin was about to stand on a tank in Moscow and Nirvanawas hitting the big time.
当印度最后一次经济危机的时候，鲍里斯叶利钦在莫斯科正要上台，涅槃乐队正出名。
Things have changed in financial terms, too.
融资条件也发生了变化。
Back then India had a fixed exchange rate, which the state almost bankrupted itself tryingto defendit had to fly gold to the Bank of England in return for a loan.
当时，印度有固定汇率，这是即将破产的国家努力维护的，为了还贷款，它必须空运黄金给英格兰银行。
India in trouble
印度身陷困境
The reckoning
最后审判日
Why India is particularly vulnerable to theturbulence rattling emerging markets
为什么印度新兴市场特别容易受到震荡
ON THE morning of August 17th most of India s economic policymakers gathered in theprime minister s house in Delhi.
8月17日上午，大多数印度经济政策制定者聚集在德里的总理府邸。
They were there to launch an official economic history of 1981-97, a period which included thebalance-of-payments crisis of 1991.
他们聚集那里为了发布一项官方的1981年到1997年间的经济史，这个时期包括1991年的国际收支危机。
The mood was tense.
氛围十分紧张。
India, said Manmohan Singh, theprime minister, faced very difficult circumstances.
总理曼莫汉辛格说，印度面临十分困难的状况。
Does history repeat itself? asked Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing head of the Reserve Bankof India.
历史重演了吗?即将退休的印度央行行长苏巴拉奥问道，
As if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?
好像我们没有从一次经济危机到另一次经济危机中什么都没有学到?
The day before Indian financial markets had had their rockiest session for many years.
之前，印度金融市场最困难的时期持续了很多年了。
The rupee sank and stockmarkets tumbled.
卢比贬值，股市坍塌。
Money-market rates rose.
货币市场汇率上升。
The shares of banks thought to be either full of bad debts or short of deposit funding fellsharply.
人们认为满是坏账或者缺少存款资金的银行股份迅速贬值。
The sell-off had been made worse by new capital controls introduced on August 14th inresponse to incipient signs of capital flight.
为应对早期资金外流现象，8月14日实施的资本控制使得证券抛售变得更糟糕。
They reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the country.
他们减少了印度居民和公司可以带出国家的资金量。
Foreign investors took fright, fearful that India might freeze their funds too, much asMalaysia did during its crisis in 1998.
外国投资者受到了惊吓，担心印度也会冻结他们的资金，就像马来西亚1998年经济危机的时候采取的措施一样。
India s authorities have since ruled that out.
印度当局后来排除了那种可能。
But markets keep sliding.
但是市场持续下滑。
On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields.
8月20日，印度央行称会试着稳定债券收益率。
The rupee has dropped to over 64 to the dollar, an all-time low and 13% below its level threemonths ago.
卢比已贬值至一美元64卢比，价值空前的低，比三个月前水平低13%。
It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.
人们普遍认为，这个国家处在自从1991年以来最糟糕的经济窘境中。
India is not being singled out.
印度不是被单挑出来的。
Since May, when the Federal Reserve first said it might slow the pace of its assetpurchases,investors have begun adjusting to a world without ultra-cheap money.
从五月份以来，当美联储首次表明会放慢其资产收购的进程时，投资者已经开始适应没有超低息政策的世界。
There has been a great withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, where mostcurrencies have fallen by 5-15% against the dollar in the past three months.
大量资金从新兴市场撤出，这些市场过去的三个月卢比对美元汇率下降了5-15%。
Bond yields have risen from Brazil to Thailand.
债券收益从巴西上升到了泰国水平。
Some governments have intervened.
一些政府介入了。
On July 11th Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to bolster its currency.
7月11日，印度尼西亚提升了其基准利率来加强货币。
On August 21st its president said he would soon announce further measures to ensurestability.
8月21日，印尼总统表明不久就会宣布进一步的措施来确保经济稳定。
India, Asia s third-biggest economy, is more vulnerable than most, however.
印度，亚洲第三大经济，却比大多数国家更脆弱。
Economic news has disappointed for two years, with growth falling to 4-5%, half the rateseen during the 2003-08 boom.
经济资讯让人们失望了两年了，经济增长率降到4-5%，其中一半的经济增长率还是在2003-08年经济蓬勃时期发展起来的。
It may fall further.
经济增长率还会进一步下跌。
Consumer-price inflation remains stubborn at 10%.
消费物价上涨仍保持在10%。
A drive by Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, to push through a package ofreforms and free big industrial projects from red tape has not worked.
由财务部长帕拉尼亚潘奇丹巴南为从繁文缛节中通过一系列改革和免费的大型工业项目而发起的运动还没有效果。
An election is due by May 2023, adding to uncertainty.
选举在2023年5月，也增加了不确定性。
India s dependence on foreign capital is also high and has risen sharply.
印度对外资的依赖程度也很高并且上升很迅速。
The current-account deficit soared to almost 7% of GDP at the end of 2023, although it isexpected to be 4-5% this year.
往来账户逆差2023年底急升至将近GDP的7%，虽然今年预期逆差是4-5%。
External borrowing has not risen by much relative to GDPthe ratio stands at 21%todaybut debt has become more short-term, and therefore riskier.
外债相对于GDP没有上升很多现在比例在21%但是债务更多是短期的，因此更危险。
Total financing needs are $250 billion over the next year.
财政需求总额下一年是2.5亿美元。
India s reserves are $279 billion, giving a coverage ratio of 1.1 times.
印度的储备是2.79亿，是偿还能力系数的1.1倍。
That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08 and leaves India looking weakerthan many of its peers.
2007-08这个储备下降了3倍多，也使印度看起来比许多同样的国家看起来更弱。
It is therefore vital that foreign equity investors stay put.
因此，外资股权投资者留在原处很重要。
They own perhaps $200 billion of shares at current prices.
按现时价格计算，他们可能拥有2亿美元的股份。
They have sold only about $3 billion since May, but if they head for the exit India would haveno defence.
自从五月份以来，他们只卖了大约3百万股份，但是如果他们撤出，印度将失去所有的防御。
This is not a repeat of 1991.
这不是1991年的一种重复。
When India last had a crisis Boris Yeltsin was about to stand on a tank in Moscow and Nirvanawas hitting the big time.
当印度最后一次经济危机的时候，鲍里斯叶利钦在莫斯科正要上台，涅槃乐队正出名。
Things have changed in financial terms, too.
融资条件也发生了变化。
Back then India had a fixed exchange rate, which the state almost bankrupted itself tryingto defendit had to fly gold to the Bank of England in return for a loan.
当时，印度有固定汇率，这是即将破产的国家努力维护的，为了还贷款，它必须空运黄金给英格兰银行。
